Shuffled thoughts

• I've been trying for a few months now to figure out why my online poker balance has been so stagnant. PokerTracker shows that I'm winning about 52% of my sessions, and my current balance is just about down to where it was on November 1 -- after peaking $150 higher around Thanksgiving, it's been a slow erratic ride back down. I think I've been underestimating the skill level of the online player. I play the same quality starting hands, but in situations where I'm faced with the decision of "should I fold, or is he overplaying the second best hand?", I've been calling -- and losing. I need to respect more of my opponents' bets.
• Therefore, in complete contradiction of some of the best advice I've heard and read, I moved up to the $1/$2 games today, which really forces me to respect their bets. (The general advice is not to move up a level until you're consistently beating the lower level game.) I ended up +$17.
• Check out this $34 pot at the $1/$2 table. If I'd have had a deuce, I think I'd have been the victim of a virtual lynching.
• Next I went to Happy Days to play in the $3/$6 ring game. Live poker is much better -- you can much more easily tell who's just throwing money in the pot, and who's representing strength. The last time I played a ring game here, a couple years ago, I think, I burned through $100 lickety split. Tonight, I played for about two hours, ending up +$36, plus a free orange juice :-) Not bad considering my best hand was hitting an ace on the flop with AJs. My highest pair was 77, and my biggest pot came when I represented a paired ace when I only held a paired ten.
• Sigh. Happy Days' tournament schedule has been adjusted again. Sunday through Wednesday, they've got a midnight tournament. Thursday, it's a 10:00 ... something. The signs are inconsistent; it's either a $20+$5 industry tournament, or a $5 buy-in $5 bounty tournament with a single $20 rebuy. And they've got the $20+$5 seven days a week at noon and 7:00 p.m.
• Their bad beat jackpot (AAAKK or better beaten by quads or better) was at $100,513 tonight. It wasn't hit, but some guy the next table over hit a royal flush on the turn for a $3020 jackpot. I think he kissed the (male) dealer.
• Their rake is insane. For any pot other than a small one, it's a $3 rake plus $2 for the jackpot.
• They're also running out of white chips. The poker room manager had to buy a rack off of a guy at my table, and told us that an order for 2500 new white chips was in production, but hadn't arrived yet.
• Seattle Poker Forum has information about local casinos. Some of it's even accurate.

Three losing sessions

It's been a lousy few days. Five tournaments, five losses, and down another $20 at a Razz ring game. The only bright spot was $12 I walked away from a $0.50/$1 limit hold em game.

No real bad beats, either -- just me being too aggressive and getting caught in a race.

Even this one (see the screen shot), I should have won, but I really had no business calling an all in preflop -- even from a maniac like this guy was, and even though I got a good read on him -- just a few hands into the tournament when holding The Hellmuth.

Weekend of tournaments, Event 8: Happy Days noon

I don't know what makes it so easy to end up in the money here, but it is. Play tighter than Hellmuth's top ten hands, let go when you miss the flop, don't worry about being blinded out, and you're in. I probably won only three hands all night, and ended up in fifth place, winning $40. Add $20 for blackjack match play, subtract the $25 buy-in, and that's a net of +$35 for the day, and +$121 for the entire weekend.

My knockout hand was the Hellmuthian 77. Perhaps I could have waited one more round, but the final five were playing uncharacteristically tight. A8 called me, and hit an 8 on the turn.

It's been a blast.