The best opponent

I played $3/$6 at Palace last Saturday night, and doubled my $100 buy-in in three hours. A large chunk of this change came from a guy in seat 2, two seats to my right. The first thing I noticed about him was that he was confused about what drink the waitress had brought him, up until the point where the waitress realized how inebriated he was, and politely declined to serve him.

He left the table for a few minutes, and when he returned he staggered over one of the low rolling tables, splashing seat 1's drink. Ten minutes later, I hit an ace-high flush on the turn, raised and capped the pot against him, and he doesn't slow down on the river; I extract another $24 from him. He's frustrated after I show the nuts to his ten-high flush, and I conciliatorily tell him, "that's tough; there no way you could have laid that down." I didn't mention to him that it should have been easy to stop raising, though.

He plays several more hands, including several against one of the best players in the room, someone who is always here, and loses almost every time. The drunk offhandedly calls him "Mr. Lucky", and the rest of the table chuckles. We rib Mr. Lucky for the next 30 minutes, until he leaves to go get some dinner. A few minutes later, I'm dealt J9 on the button. I check, and the flop is J♦T♦6♥. I bet to see who else has a jack, and nobody raises me. The turn is a 9♥, I bet again, and everyone folds, except for Mr. Tipsy, who raises me. I put him on a 1-in-5 flush draw, so re-raise him. He stares at me, I joke about Mr. Lucky leaving the table, and tell him that I'm trying to make myself the new lucky guy. He re-raises, capping it, and I call.

The river is a Q♠, making a possible straight if he has an 8 or a king. I slyly check, and he asks me if I'm going to check raise him if he bets. I'm non-committal, and he bets. "I call. Two pair." I show my jacks and sixes. He shows me his A6, for a pair of sixes. Awesome.

(Oh, and my four-figure check from PlayersOnly arrived this week. Awesome^2.)

With a little help from my friends

I went on my 17th annual camping trip with a group of friends this weekend, and they helped critique my poker game. One hole we identified is when I'm ahead on the flop, I don't admit to myself that I fell behind on the turn or river, even when it's obvious. It's something to work on.

(Also, there's the fact that I play limit poker, not no-limit, which gives the maniacs the right odds to call more often, but what can you do about that?)

For dinner, 15 of us stopped at the buffet at Little Creek. Yum. They also helped me pick up 49 match play coupons for Happy Days for August. Yep -- it's back, and I went 2-0 tonight.

Law change: $25 is now $40

Yeah, I'm a few months behind on this one. In the Washington State Gambling Commission's March Focus on Gambling newsletter (.pdf), they announced a rule change that became effective April 9: poker wagering limits, which had been a maximum of $25, have been bumped up to $40. That explains why I'm seeing $8/$16 and $10/$20 tables now, when I never remembered seeing them before.

The newsletters are a fun read -- you get to see what happens to dealers who are caught stealing, who deal drunk, who rig raffles, and who give out money to players who don't win. There's also lists of casinos who allow minors to play and who don't file their paperwork on time.

But in purple, I'm stunning

In contrast to the bad online $1/$2 play I've had recently, today was an OK day in brick and mortar land. Mainly, it's because I got to spend a day in brick and mortar land, but secondly, it's because I played well and cam out ahead.

At Palace's 8:30 a.m. tourney, I lost my $20 buy-in about 30 minutes into the tourney (10 minute rounds) when my AK of spades ran into pocket eights preflop, and never caught up. At Happy Days, I pushed all-in with AQo, and got called by... another AQo. And a pair of nines. The nines won it, two of us dropped at the same time.

But in cash game play at Palace, three hands in I raked in a monster pot (about $45, I think), when I missed my straight draw and flush draw, and only had a K♥ on the river. I continued to bet strong however, and the other two players who apparently also missed their draws, folded.

I took a small hit when I ran into a set of sixes, but came back with a win in the small blind with A9s, when I hit the flop (a 3, a 5, and a 9), then paired the ace on the turn, beating someone with A5.

In the end, I was up $70 at the $3/$6 game before I left, and won $10 with the Happy Days match play tickets, so subtracting out the $20 and $25 buy-ins, I ended up +$35 for the day. Vacation's great.

When I'm quiet, it's bad news

After the bad night in my last post, and then another bad night the very next day, I lost about two thirds of my online bankroll. Why have I been sucking at $1/$2 limit games? I've really got no idea, but the easy solution is not to play $1/$2 online for a while.

Instead, I've been playing $0.01/$0.02 no-limit, which has been an absolute blast. I'd forgotten how much fun online poker can be. See, I've been seeing every flop that costs me 4¢ or less, and then betting aggressive when I hit top pair, and have been really irritating the heck out of people when I end up taking down pots with hands like 93o when I hit two pair. I'd like to tell myself that I'm doing it to train myself to fold overcards post-flop, but really, it's because I like profiting big on unexpected wins.

Third worst night ever

Wow: one night, down $52.80. That's down $25.45 at 2-7 lowball, down $17.25 at $1/$2 limit, and down $12.85 at the $0.50/$1 limit table. A small Horse win only helped a little. The only worse online poker nights I've got records of was one last April at CDPoker (-$58.25), and the one that started my downhill run last November (-$52.95 at FullTilt). This actually puts me into the negative overall for 2007.

I've printed out some stats from PokerTracker that I'm going to look at tonight, and see what I might be doing differently. At first glance, the only I'm seeing is that I've been playing a little bit more aggressive on the flop but more passive on the turn and river. These differences aren't major, and perhaps not even statistically significant.

Maybe it's not my play, but the fact that the opposition is getting better. Is it time to bail? I've got $99 bucks left at PokerStars, and 973 "Player Points", which I was hoping to run up to 1200 to get a free shirt. Maybe it's time to get out. Maybe not. Another night like this, though, and I'm gonna bail.

Shuffled thoughts

• I've been trying for a few months now to figure out why my online poker balance has been so stagnant. PokerTracker shows that I'm winning about 52% of my sessions, and my current balance is just about down to where it was on November 1 -- after peaking $150 higher around Thanksgiving, it's been a slow erratic ride back down. I think I've been underestimating the skill level of the online player. I play the same quality starting hands, but in situations where I'm faced with the decision of "should I fold, or is he overplaying the second best hand?", I've been calling -- and losing. I need to respect more of my opponents' bets.
• Therefore, in complete contradiction of some of the best advice I've heard and read, I moved up to the $1/$2 games today, which really forces me to respect their bets. (The general advice is not to move up a level until you're consistently beating the lower level game.) I ended up +$17.
• Check out this $34 pot at the $1/$2 table. If I'd have had a deuce, I think I'd have been the victim of a virtual lynching.
• Next I went to Happy Days to play in the $3/$6 ring game. Live poker is much better -- you can much more easily tell who's just throwing money in the pot, and who's representing strength. The last time I played a ring game here, a couple years ago, I think, I burned through $100 lickety split. Tonight, I played for about two hours, ending up +$36, plus a free orange juice :-) Not bad considering my best hand was hitting an ace on the flop with AJs. My highest pair was 77, and my biggest pot came when I represented a paired ace when I only held a paired ten.
• Sigh. Happy Days' tournament schedule has been adjusted again. Sunday through Wednesday, they've got a midnight tournament. Thursday, it's a 10:00 ... something. The signs are inconsistent; it's either a $20+$5 industry tournament, or a $5 buy-in $5 bounty tournament with a single $20 rebuy. And they've got the $20+$5 seven days a week at noon and 7:00 p.m.
• Their bad beat jackpot (AAAKK or better beaten by quads or better) was at $100,513 tonight. It wasn't hit, but some guy the next table over hit a royal flush on the turn for a $3020 jackpot. I think he kissed the (male) dealer.
• Their rake is insane. For any pot other than a small one, it's a $3 rake plus $2 for the jackpot.
• They're also running out of white chips. The poker room manager had to buy a rack off of a guy at my table, and told us that an order for 2500 new white chips was in production, but hadn't arrived yet.
• Seattle Poker Forum has information about local casinos. Some of it's even accurate.

Why aren't pocket fours on Hellmuth's list?

At a 50¢/$1 limit hold 'em table, I'm in fifth position out of ten players, and I'm dealt 4♦ 4♥. UTG and UTG+1 fold, I call, and everyone between me and the button call. The button raises to $1. Small blind calls, and FartKing, the loose passive big blind, raises to $1.50. I think for quite a while, look at the $6 in the pot, remember when I folded pocket fours on Friday night (missing quad fours on the flop), and go to click the fold button. I can't bring myself to do it, and call. The next three players fold, then the cutoff position, who had just called the 50¢, caps it to $2. The button, the blinds, and I call, and the five of us see the flop with an $11.50 pot.

3♥ 9♥ 3♦

The blinds check, and although I consider betting (they say that the first person to bet on a paired flop usually takes it down), I check as well. The cutoff position bets, and everyone else calls, including myself. The pot odds are something like 27:1 here. With a $14 pot, five of us see the turn.

2♥

It checks around to cutoff again, who bets $1. The button folds, the small blind, who PokerTracker has given a "fish" icon to, calls, as does FartKing, who only has 25¢ left in his stack. I don't know what I'm hoping to hit here, but whatever it is, I've got 17:1 pot odds for it. I call.

8♠ comes on the river.

The blinds check, and it's to me. There's no way my fours are going to win this, and I'm going to have to call any bet, so I might as well put in a dollar and see if I can knock a scare better hand out. How? No idea. It was a dumb move.

The cutoff position folds. He must've been on a flush draw and missed.

The fish in the small blind folds. He must've been on a couple of overcards and couldn't let them go.

FartKing and his 25¢ think a long time. I'd already nailed him earlier -- and taunted him -- after taking down a $9 pot from him with 43s when the pot odds wouldn't let me leave and I hit a set on the river. There's no way he folds here. 25¢ to win an $18.50 pot? Easy, easy call.

He does call. He shows K♥ T♦, having missed his flush and merely holding two overcards. I take down the $19.25 pot.