Playing Roulette as a Business

(In which I drop the phrase "WTF?" several times)

OK, keep laughing. Yes, Playing Roulette as a Business is the actual title of a book out there. I discovered it at the library a few weeks ago, and it's so chock full of misconseptions that I think I was irritating other library patrons with my laughter.

The system? Bet two units on one block of six numbers, bet two units on another block of six numbers, and bet one unit on the five number block of 0, 00, 1, 2, 3. If you know anything about roulette, you're already saying "WTF?!", but if not, let me explain why this is so dumb.

There's 38 slots on a roulette wheel. If you bet $1 on a single number, beat the 38:1 odds, and win, you get $35, plus keep your original $1. The difference between the $36 you get and the $38 you should is the house edge. The edge, on a percentage basis, is the $2 difference divided by the $38 you should get, which is 5.26%. That's a huge house edge -- don't play this game if you are in it to make money -- "as a business". Heh.

If you bet $1 on a six-number block and win, you'll get $5 plus your $1 back. Figuring out the payoff for almost any $1 bet is easy: it's 36 divided by the number of numbers covered. Betting on black, which covers 18 numbers? That's 36/18, so you'll get $2 ($1 won, plus your original $1).

However, the five number block of 0, 00, 1, 2, 3 only pays back $6 plus the original $1, although it should be paying $7.20 plus $1. That's the worst bet in roulette, with a 7.89% house edge.

The author says that the 6/6/5 blocks of numbers he recommends work because they're spread out around the wheel, making it more likely that they'll hit. Again, WTF? Whether the 17 numbers are scattered around the wheel or whether they're one big wedge of 17 numbers, the odds of hitting any of them are the same: 17 in 38.

He correctly disparages the Martingale system, which has you double your bets after every loss. Your bets would be 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 and so on. The obvious problem with the system is that when you hit a losing streak, you're betting $64 or $128 after eight or nine losses in order to win $1.

The author's solution? Use a 1-1-1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 progression. WTF? That's just the Martingale with two extra losing sessions tacked onto the beginning. When you're in the middle of a losing "streak", the wheel doesn't know that you've lost or won the previous spin.

The most amusing part of the book came at the very, very end. On the back cover of the book is the following:

R. J. Smart is the pseudonym of a Nevada roulette croupier. He prefers to remain anonymous and hopes to earn enough royalties from sales of this book to permit expansion of his roulette activities to casinos other than the one in which he works.

WTF? The author of Playing Roulette as a Business is apparently unable to play roulette as a business, and his system apparently doesn't even give him enough bankroll to play somewhere else (WTF does that mean?).

So in conclusion, to play roulette as a business, you've got to:
1) Make the worst possible bet on the wheel
2) Follow a system that the author says not to follow
3) Trust a guy who admits that he's funding his roulette play from roulette book royalties.

WTF?

Spread, slots, spins, and slowness

A recap of my gamblin' activities in Spokane follows.

Friday: After the pre-event dessert, I returned briefly to my hotel, then moseyed over to the bowling alley across the street. The table games were jumping, but when I poked my head into the poker room, it was like entering a cone of silence. Four empty tables, and a lonely looking security guard talking to the cashier. They said that once the 6:30 tournament had finished, everyone bailed out. They did, however, refer me to "Ringo's" casino just a few blocks down the road.

Ringo's offered $5/$10 and $2-$6 spread. I'd encountered spread once before (at the now-bankrupt Northstar Casino, where I watched a few games of $1-$8 spread), but I'd never played. I like it a lot -- the blinds are lower than $3/$6 (being $1 and $2 instead of $1 and $3), and a too-tight player like me will still get action from a few players when I raise to $4 or $6 or $8 pre-flop. I was up for a while, down for a while, and ended +$13 after two hours of play. It was time to go to bed -- the cache machine was starting early on Saturday.

Saturday: After the cache machine dinner, I considered going to Northern Quest, the big indian casino near Spokane. I knew that their only tournaments were 10:30 a.m. daily, so it'd be cash games only. I wasn't dressed for it, though, and as exhausting as the day was, once I made it back to the hotel to change, I decided to go to sleep instead. That was probably for the best -- I play crappy poker when I'm tired.

Sunday: I woke up earlier than I expected, and figured I'd hit Northern Quest on the way home. I wanted to be home by 6:00 p.m., because that's when the rest of the family would be back from visting the in-laws, and my mapping software showed that it would be a 5½ hour drive from the casino to my front door. To play it safe, I'd have to be out of there by noon. No tournament for me this morning.

I arrived at about 9:15 and signed up on the $3/$6 list. Their poker room is one of the nicest ones I've seen in the state. Ten tables, new looking felt, fairly comfy chairs, lots of room. They gave me a pager, and I went and signed up for the players club. I got a free wooden pen set and deck of cards. Yay. I played on the slots (-$20) and roulette (-$24) for a while. The slots were disappointing, because I thought I'd read that this was the one casino in the state with slots that actually take coins instead of tickets or cards; it doesn't. Roulette was fun, because I tried out a new system instead of betting on my standard numbers. Yes, I know it's a dumb unwinnable game, and no systems work -- see my next posting for my amusing take on this.

I returned to the poker room at about 10:00 and waited, read a couple poker magazines, waited, read news on my blackberry, and waited some more. At 10:30, the $3/$6 game broke, and the tournament started with 60 players at six tables, plus 20 alternates. During the first 15 minute level, nobody busted out. The empty four tables weren't being used, because even though there were 15 people on the list (with my name at the top), they didn't have enough dealers.

At 11:00 I bailed, hit the road, and drove west. Almost two hours, no poker seat open. It's a nice looking poker room, but I question how well it's managed.

I stopped in Ellensburg for lunch at about 2:15, and discovered the Wild Goose Casino. I poked my head in, but a tournament had just started at 1:30, and with a 2-3 hour drive ahead of me, I couldn't afford to wait. I had lunch at Perkins instead, and was back on the road at 3:00, arriving home at 5:00.

Net for the weekend, -$31. That's still cheap entertainment.

Reflections on the Spokane Cache Machine

(Composed entirely on blackberry; typos are my own fat fingers)

On the way to Spokane, I hit eight geocaches. I really got tired of pointless microcaches a year or so ago, and pretty much stopped caching locally, as I'd either already been to the neat spots in the area, or the new caches were hidden in parking lot culverts (really!) or stuck to random suburban electrical boxes (two come to mind immediately).

When I plotted my route to Spokane, I limited myself to normal sized, traditional caches within 0.5 miles of my route. This led me to a bushwhacking-to-a-creek cache near Maple Valley, and to a cache near a nice sized waterfall in the former Twin Falls State Park. Good ones. I also made it to the I-90 Wild Stallions cache that I mentioned in my previous post, and to the Petrified Forest State Park, somewhere I've wanted to visit since seeing it in the cheezy Washington geography films in fourth grade.

However, it also took me to an old mill in Thorpe, which would have been fine, but I'd forgotten that I'd found another cache at the same location two years ago. I also hit two rest area caches, which are kind of lame. I can say that -- I own the Federal Way rest area cache.

The number of micros and small caches in Spokane was surprising. I think of the 81 caches we got on Saturday, maybe 5 of them were ammo cans. A lot of them were magnetic hide-a-key containers. One particular run through Airway. Heights had eight consecutive caches that were either attached to lamp posts in restaurant parking lots or under a roadside water meter lid.

It was still a lot of fun. Spokane's got a great riverfront with a massive waterfall, and several of the caches showcased architecture, artwork, or history of the area. One creative cache had us standing in the middle of a desert-like pasture trying to figure out how a wooden box, bungee-corded cordless phone, and gold-painted nail were supposed to work together. But several parks had multiple unremarkable caches when one would do, and for every great cache, there were several "what were they thinking" caches.

Sunday, on the way home, I hit one cache, only because I had to stop and use the rest area, and it wasn't a micro.

The event was considerably more organized than the one's I'd created in the past. This has its good points -- it's great that someone thought to alert the police that a group of 125 people would be lurking the side streets and abusing parking lot lampposts -- and bad points -- should the event really be a fundraiser for the local chapter? In all, I think it was a good event. It's not done how I would have; I think it was an improvement. I've had more practice doing cache machine routing (which is why my three vehicle sub-group followed my vehicle on a route I created), but there's no way I'd have organized such a good social part of the event.

I think I'll go to the next one. I saw some neat new spots, and I had fun, and that's what really mattered.

Spokane Cache Machine coming up

I'll be heading to Spokane next weekend for the Spokane Cache Machine event, and I'll probably play some poker there as well. I did well at the local bowling alley at the Wenatchee Cache Machine, so I'm thinking I'll try the bowling alley/casino in Spokane, instead of going to play at the Northern Quest. If I have time, I'll do both, 'cause I'd love to take a look at what they've got -- Spokane's not a poker wasteland, being the home of Bryant King, who placed 21st in the 2005 WSOP ($304,000), second in a 2006 WSOP circuit event ($416,000), and has almost $900K in lifetime winnings.

It's a longer drive than most of the other CM's I've gone to (except maybe Victoria, but that was at the end of an around-the-Olympic-Peninsula vacation), but there's several caches I plan to hit along the way to break up the drive. The one I'm looking forward to the most is I-90, Wild Stallions Ride Again (pictured), which you've probably seen if you've driven I-90 eastbound across the Columbia.

I'll be heading out early Friday. My preliminary route plan shows me leaving at 6:30 a.m. and arriving at 5:00 p.m. (planning for 10 minutes per cache), but that's pretty flexible, particularly since I don't plan on leaving until 8:30 or so.

Saturday will be a sun-up to sun-down mass mob cache hunt. I'm meeting up with a couple cachers and will be their navigator. I've got the official Spokane Cache Machine route ready to print, but I like Microsoft MapPoint a lot more, so I'll be spending time this week copying the waypoints over and re-creating the route.

Sunday will be breakfast in Coeur D'Alene, then a leisurely drive back, hitting caches that I skipped on my eastbound route.

This is the first cache machine event I've attended that I didn't organize. I planned one in Spokane before, back in September 2003, but didn't attend due to a house fire. I'm looking forward to this a lot.

Vacation Mondays are over

On March 19, I finished in fifth place in the Palace tourney.

On April 9, I finished in fifth place in the Palace tourney.

Guess how I did on April 16? If you guessed fifth, you'd be right.

Last Monday was my last vacation Monday; my vacation calendar's been reset, and I've got another 15 days to use within the next 12 months. It was a good finale, too. I ended up net +$25 in the Palace tournament, and played the $3/$6 ring game for three hours, with my $100 buy in varying from $45 to $215, ending at $105 (+$5).

In the tournament, solid, tight play (I folded AJo UTG with less than three orbits in chips left) and a good bit of luck (I rivered two poor souls twice) got me that far, but I'm thinking that I need to stay tight once I'm in the top five. My pocket fives were a racing hand, and I could have sat around a few more rounds before the blinds would have knocked me out.

In the cash game, a co-worker of mine was to my right. His style of play was a lot looser than mine, but he was also better at getting away from hands. I got burned a few times when I couldn't let go of overcards soon enough, but made a huge stack of chips with pocket tens and a board of JJT-x-x, when the button held another J.

I also made the same mistake two hands in a row. I was dealt pocket eights (yes, two hands in a row), and the quads jackpot for eights was an unusually high $800. After missing the flop, I figured I had the right odds to call a raise to see the turn. That's wrong. With a 2/47 chance of hitting another 8, there would have to be $141 in the pot to justify a $6 call (based on thinking a set of 8s would win), but the odds of hitting the jackpot -- getting runner/runner eights -- is 1/1081, meaning the jackpot would need to be $13K to justify $9 in bets. Of course, when I didn't hit an 8 on the turn, I got out, but that was money I didn't need to throw away.

Fifth place again

Tight play and a little luck got me to the top five at Palace again. Losing an all-in race (my AQs, his 66) knocked me out. Yup, a bad day for me and pocket sixes.

No more match play at Happy Days

It's been two weeks since I played the Happy Days tourney, and it looks like they've made a lot of changes, none of which are particularly good.

• No more 2x $10 match play coupons with the $25 buy-in. The dealer I talked to said that management finally did the math and realized what a good deal it was for the players. They figured players would have to play 30 hands for the casino to break even, and players generally weren't doing that. This change effectively increases the cost of the tourney by about $9.80.
• The $1 blackjack is gone. It's up to $3 minimum bets, which makes it just like everywhere else in town.
• In tournaments, when a waiting list player gets seated, they're required to post the missed blind. They've never done that before, and they don't seem too sure of how to do it now. The worst situation I saw was at the $400/$800 level; someone sat down UTG and had to post $900 of their $5000 starting chips. $500 was dead money; to play the hand they had to throw in another $400. That's a quarter of their stack committed, just for sitting down with a mediocre hand. That's dumb enough that I'm considering not playing there again; it'll bite me soon enough. I didn't stick around long enough to tell if it applies to players who channged tables. Logically, it should, but that's even more stupid. I pushed my 66 against a QQ and went home.
• Until yesterday, they still had the $120000 bad beat jackpot, but finally gave up, realizing that it'll be forever before someone wins quads-over-quads. The state requires the money to go back to the players, so they're awarding an hourly high hand prize of $100 for the next 1200 hours, starting this morning. The result, from the chatter around the tournament table, is players who will play any Axo or Kxo, hoping to get a high full house. KKK22 won the noon prize today.
• At least the coffee cups have gotten better. They're glass instead of styrofoam now.

Not much poker lately

Nope, not much poker. Last Monday (a week ago), I ended in 14th place, out of the money, in the Palace tourney. It was the wife's spring break week, so after waiting (unsuccessfully) for a $3/$6 seat to open up, I went home to spend the rest of thre day with her instead of at Hqappy Days' noon tourney. This week is the kid's spring break, so we spent Monday out at Hood Canal instead of playing poker. I've got two vacation Mondays left, and a big geocaching trip to Spokane in late April, where I'll hit a few cardrooms between events. And online play? I'm down to my last $20, which will be difficult to supplement if I klose it. I've been hoping to win enough -i to stay out of the hole long enough -- to get enough player points to get a PokerStars shirt. I think it says a lot about my (lack of) confidence in my online game that I haven't considered playing in tourneys that take player points to buy-in.

Treasure Casino, Renton (plug)

Last October, I collected notes about tournaments across the south Puget Sound area. I received an e-mail last week from the poker room manager of the Treasure Casino in Renton. He'd seen the list (and my postings on the Seattle Area Poker forum) and asked if I'd add their information. I'm not getting a kickback or anything -- he just asked nicely. Sounds like a reasonable request to me. I've never played there, but I did stop in there once at 4:30 in the morning, but the friendly staff advised me that all the other degenerates had gone home or down the road to Silver Dollar.

The poker manager writes:

We have daily $30 total tournamenta twice a day at 12:30 & 6:30 pm, 5000 starting chips, blinds double from 25-50 every 15 minutes. (Except for the 'hiccup' from 200-400 to 300-600, then 500-1000, then back on the double train.)

Our daily tournaments have a prize pool of $400 guaranteed, so if it's just you at tournament time - you get all the money. (I had 3 people show up once...)

Saturday and Sundays we have $60 total buy in tournaments at 12:30, where you start off with 10,000 in chips.

Saturday, March 24th, at 12:30, it's $125 total (110 + 15), 10,000 chips with 20 minute rounds.

Vacation Monday: Breaking even

I felt really good about the poker I played on Monday. At Palace, with 13 players left, I was down to a single $500 chip and a chair with blinds at $500 and $1000. With a lot of luck and good tight play, I ended in fifth place, winning $45 (net +$25). At one point, I was in the big blind and folded KQo to a raise and re-raise -- and I would have lost to AQo. Nice laydown.

After the tourney, I played the $3/$6 game for about 45 minutes, end ended up breaking even there.

At Happy Days, I used my $25 win from Palace for my buy-in, and busted out in 12th place under the gun with K9o, when I held only enough to pay the oncoming blinds. I won $10 with the match play coupons, though, so really, I ended up ahead $10 for the day. +$10, and played poker for almost five hours... that's a fun day.

If it wasn't for luck, I'd win them all

Last week, I wrote:

Next Monday, I play super tight in the tourneys, only committing my chips when I'm almost sure I've got an advantage. Only allin preflop with QQ-AA or AK pre-flop, and only all-in postflop with trips or better, until I'm in the money or my stack is an orbit or less deep. (We'll see in this space next week if I can actually do this.)

So... how did I do?

I missed the Palace tournament; I took my daughter to a dentist appointment instead. I arrived at Palace at about 9, got into the $3/$6 game at about 9:30, and left $100 lighter at about 10:30. My AJs hit a board of A53-J-x only to be brought down by a slow-playing small blind, who had called a pre-flop raise with 42o. A few minutes later, I ran into quad kings while holding top two pair.

I only "won" two hands: pocket aces on the button (folded around to me, I merely call, the big blind folds post flop, net +$4) and A9s (the board is A87-7-7, I split the pot with an A6, net +$7).

At Happy Days, my blackjack match plays got beat (including my double-down 11 against a dealer 3), as did two of the next three hands.

In the tournament, with blinds of 400 and 800, I had 3600 left (from my starting 5000), and was in the small blind. It folded around to the button, who called, and I completed with A♠ 7♠. I've got 2800 left. The big blind, who has a slightly smaller stack, checked. The board came A57 rainbow. I toss in 1000 with my two pair. The big blind immediately pushes his stack of 2100 all in. The button folds. It's to me.

I put the big blind on a bigger ace, which my two pair is beating. I call, and he turns over 86o, for an open-end straight draw. I'm a 70%/30% favorite, but the turn is a 9, giving him the win. I'm crippled at 700 chips, and push QTo a few hands later. It doesn't make it.

It wasn't post-flop trips or better, as I'd promised myself, but I'll replay an edge like that in a tournament every chance I get. It was just an expensive day of bad luck. Unlike some previous sessions, however, I'm very satisfied with how I played.

A down Monday, my first B&M comp, and next week's strategy

Yeah, blogging this one a bit late.

The regular Monday vacation poker day started at Palace, where I signed up, then had to make an emergency run to my daughter's school for a few minutes. I returned 10 minutes into the tournament, having missed only one hand -- they started late. About 45 minutes later, on the button and with my stack about half of its original size, I push all in when a middle position raised. I show AK, he shows AJ, and a jack comes on the flop.

Over to the ring game, where I end up ahead about $40 before I leave to go to the noon Happy Days tourney. I also asked for a breakfast comp (my first time ever), and got it no questions asked. Free eggs. Sweet.

I've arrived at Happy Days a bit early, so I buy into the $3/$6 game there. Several times over the next 20 minutes I'm dealt the second best hand, play it too agressively, call weak draws with proper pot odds, and lose $100. At blackjack, I win a match play and lose a match play, play some more, and end up +$2.

I need to stick around at Palace longer next week. I don't know why I find the game there more profitable than Happy Days' ring games, but I'm roughly +$100 at Palace $3/$6 lifetime, and roughly -$180 at Happy Days $3/$6.

In the Happy Days tourney, I survive for about an hour before I get moved to another table. This table had lost several players, so I went from being one of the big stacks to being a very small stack. With no read on anyone yet, under the gun, blinds at $400/$800, and $2600 in front of me, I push pre-flop with 7♠ 6♠. One caller shows pocket red threes. The board helps neither of us, and I go home.

It turns out that 7♠ 6♠ is a 50% to 47% favorite over non-spade pocket threes (with a 3% chance to split the pot). I knew it was close, and figured I'd put my money into both tournament situations with the best hand, which is what you've gotta do. Even more importantly, I'd have done the same thing even if I'd known the cards I was facing.

In retrospect, I'm not so sure that was the right move.

I used a Barnes & Noble gift card (thanks, TMIB and Pony!) and bought The Poker Tournament Formula a few weeks ago. In it, Arnold Snyder discusses fast local tournaments, and how to play them differently than the longer, day-long tournaments that the other pros write about. In short, blind-stealing from two off the button is required when nobody's entered the pot; aggression into single-suited flops is mandatory. The odds are slim that someone has two clubs when three of them are on the flop, so it might as well be you who takes down the pot. To do so, though, you can't give someone proper pot odds to draw to their 40% chance to hit a fifth club on the turn or river, so you've got to bet big. Doing this, you'll win a lot of small pots, and lose big ones, but in short-term fast tournaments, you'll often not have the opportunity to lose the big one. By betting the pot, a caller is making a mistake, and as Sklansky points out in Small Stakes Hold 'em, poker profit comes from your opponent's mistakes.

Sklansky, however, is talking about $3/$6 play, not tournaments. In a tournament, making a play that will win 52% of the time is a quick way to the exit. Making my 7♠ 6♠ move three times leaves me less than a 14% chance of survival. A better opportunity probably would have come along some time before I was blinded away in the next three orbits. My past tournament wins at Happy Days have come when I won a few small hands, then just waited for everyone else to get busted out.

Arnold says this playing this way -- playing early for survival -- will very rarely get me into the money, but that playing as the agressive blind thief will get big money finishes or nothing. That explains why I've never finished first in a brick and mortar tourney. However, I've gotten enough money finishes that if I play a super-tight strategy, I'll get my money back about half of the time, and will profit about 10% of the time. If that 10% covers the 35% of the time I bust out, I break even.

Next Monday, I play super tight in the tourneys, only committing my chips when I'm almost sure I've got an advantage. Only allin preflop with QQ-AA or AK pre-flop, and only all-in postflop with trips or better, until I'm in the money or my stack is an orbit or less deep. (We'll see in this space next week if I can actually do this.)

And I'm staying out of the Happy Days $3/$6 game.

Aggression and playing loony

Aggression wins bigger pots.

Case in point -- at a six-player $0.01/$0.02 no-limit table, I'm dealt A♥ K♣ under the gun. I raise to 6¢. A typical "I have a hand" bet is 8¢, so this might look a bit suspicous, but I want one or two callers.

The player to my left raises to 10¢, the next two players call, and the blinds fold. Back to me, I need some of these guys out of the pot, so I raise to 30¢. They all call, and four of us see the flop: 6♠ 7♥ 3♥

Time for the aggression.

First to act, I put in 30¢. I'm representing that I either hit a set, or have AA or KK. One player folds; the other two call. I really should have bet more, because anyone with two hearts is about 40% to make their flush, and the pot's giving them 5:1 to call the bet.

The turn is 3♣

Either I fold here, or I push. If I push, it's a complete bluff, representing that I had a set on the turn, and hit a boat or quad 3's on the turn. I've got the other two players outstacked, I think about it for a few seconds, then bet $2.69, which is exactly the size of the largest stack still in. I could have just gone all in, but by betting this amount, it's telling the other player "I see your stack size, and I'm calling you out."

They fold, and I take in a monster $2.13 pot (net +$1.43).

Playing loony wins, too

I'm dealt K♥ 2♣ in middle position. I limp in for 2¢, as do the seven other players who see the flop of

2♥ 7♣ K♣

Check, check, check, and the person to my right min-bets 2¢. I pop it up to 8¢, the two late position players fold, and the small blind goes all in for $2.33. It's folded back to me, and I go into the tank. The small blind had joined the table four hands ago, and won two of them on the flop, getting others to fold. He'd just seen me play the previous hand, where I took down a monster pot when I flopped a straight with my JTs, beating out AQs. I didn't know what to put him on, but figured he might have the hammer, or a couple of clubs, or a set.

I really discount that he's got a set of 2's or kings, because it's very rare that all four cards of a set would be in play this early. He's either got K7 or a set of sevens, which puts me way behind, or he's trying to protect Kx or AA, which puts me way ahead. I call.

He turns over J♠ 8♣. WTF what he thinking? Only runner-runner clubs, jacks, eights, or ten-nine can save him. When the turn is the 4♠, he's drawing dead. The queen on the river is irrelevant, and I take down the $4.82 pot (net +$2.27).

But in purple, I'm stunning

In contrast to the bad online $1/$2 play I've had recently, today was an OK day in brick and mortar land. Mainly, it's because I got to spend a day in brick and mortar land, but secondly, it's because I played well and cam out ahead.

At Palace's 8:30 a.m. tourney, I lost my $20 buy-in about 30 minutes into the tourney (10 minute rounds) when my AK of spades ran into pocket eights preflop, and never caught up. At Happy Days, I pushed all-in with AQo, and got called by... another AQo. And a pair of nines. The nines won it, two of us dropped at the same time.

But in cash game play at Palace, three hands in I raked in a monster pot (about $45, I think), when I missed my straight draw and flush draw, and only had a K♥ on the river. I continued to bet strong however, and the other two players who apparently also missed their draws, folded.

I took a small hit when I ran into a set of sixes, but came back with a win in the small blind with A9s, when I hit the flop (a 3, a 5, and a 9), then paired the ace on the turn, beating someone with A5.

In the end, I was up $70 at the $3/$6 game before I left, and won $10 with the Happy Days match play tickets, so subtracting out the $20 and $25 buy-ins, I ended up +$35 for the day. Vacation's great.

When I'm quiet, it's bad news

After the bad night in my last post, and then another bad night the very next day, I lost about two thirds of my online bankroll. Why have I been sucking at $1/$2 limit games? I've really got no idea, but the easy solution is not to play $1/$2 online for a while.

Instead, I've been playing $0.01/$0.02 no-limit, which has been an absolute blast. I'd forgotten how much fun online poker can be. See, I've been seeing every flop that costs me 4¢ or less, and then betting aggressive when I hit top pair, and have been really irritating the heck out of people when I end up taking down pots with hands like 93o when I hit two pair. I'd like to tell myself that I'm doing it to train myself to fold overcards post-flop, but really, it's because I like profiting big on unexpected wins.

Third worst night ever

Wow: one night, down $52.80. That's down $25.45 at 2-7 lowball, down $17.25 at $1/$2 limit, and down $12.85 at the $0.50/$1 limit table. A small Horse win only helped a little. The only worse online poker nights I've got records of was one last April at CDPoker (-$58.25), and the one that started my downhill run last November (-$52.95 at FullTilt). This actually puts me into the negative overall for 2007.

I've printed out some stats from PokerTracker that I'm going to look at tonight, and see what I might be doing differently. At first glance, the only I'm seeing is that I've been playing a little bit more aggressive on the flop but more passive on the turn and river. These differences aren't major, and perhaps not even statistically significant.

Maybe it's not my play, but the fact that the opposition is getting better. Is it time to bail? I've got $99 bucks left at PokerStars, and 973 "Player Points", which I was hoping to run up to 1200 to get a free shirt. Maybe it's time to get out. Maybe not. Another night like this, though, and I'm gonna bail.

Monday morning tourneys; quads over quads

It's another vacation Monday, so I played the morning tournament at Palace in Lakewood again. After a real donkey move of calling two all-ins with A♦8♦, and then pushing another guy in when I held AKo against his pocket sevens, I was done in about 20 minutes. I then moved over to the $3/$6 cash game, where after two hours of play, I was up $24, netting $4 for the morning.

Tonight, I hopped back onto the 1¢/2¢ no-limit tables at PokerStars, and playing four tables at a time, paid 2¢ to see every flop for an hour, regardless of my hand. That netted me $5.29 for the night, and this amazing screen shot. Too bad he didn't have any more money at the time.

Intentionally folding quads and seeing a royal

Playing at a 50¢/$1 horse ring game this afternoon I got dealt quad fives. Sadly, it was in Omaha, which made it absolutely worthless to hold. I folded it preflop. So sad. (See screen shot.)

Then later, playing in a 16 player horse tournament this afternoon, I got to see a royal flush being hit, for the second time ever in my life. I wasn't able to grab a screen shot, but did grab the hand history:

PokerStars Game #8394000261: Tournament #42783591, $1.50+$0.25 HORSE (Hold'em Limit) - Level VI (100/200) - 2007/02/11 - 18:26:05 (ET)
Table '42783591 2' 8-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Crisy Poo (2720 in chips) 
Seat 2: Irishgirl63 (2603 in chips) 
Seat 3: LauricT (2743 in chips) 
Seat 5: thirdcoma (1820 in chips) 
Seat 7: BigRiver77 (2114 in chips) 
BigRiver77: posts small blind 50
Crisy Poo: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LauricT [2s Js]
Irishgirl63: calls 100
LauricT: folds 
thirdcoma: calls 100
BigRiver77: folds 
Crisy Poo: checks 
*** FLOP *** [Qh Th Kh]
Crisy Poo: checks 
Irishgirl63: checks 
thirdcoma: bets 100
Crisy Poo: folds 
Irishgirl63: calls 100
*** TURN *** [Qh Th Kh] [Jh]
Irishgirl63: checks 
thirdcoma: checks 
*** RIVER *** [Qh Th Kh Jh] [7h]
Irishgirl63: checks 
thirdcoma: bets 200
Irishgirl63: calls 200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
thirdcoma: shows [Ah 9d] (a Royal Flush)
Irishgirl63: mucks hand 
thirdcoma collected 950 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 950 | Rake 0 
Board [Qh Th Kh Jh 7h]
Seat 1: Crisy Poo (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: Irishgirl63 mucked [Qc 9s]
Seat 3: LauricT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: thirdcoma (button) showed [Ah 9d] and won (950) with a Royal Flush
Seat 7: BigRiver77 (small blind) folded before Flop

Dropping a Benjamin, winning the Colts, and waking to good Mondays

• I played the $3/$6 ring game at Happy Days on Friday night, and lost $100. Ouch. Just never got good cards, and when my AQ hit a queen on the flop, I was doomed to the set of twos to my right.
• I had $6.93 left in my Bodog account, with no plans to use it for anything any time soon. I can't take it out until it hits $50, so I figured "what the heck", and put it on the Colts to win the Superbowl by 7. Cha-ching.
• Mondays are vacation days for me through April 16 (work has a use-it-or-lose-it policy and I've got ten days to burn), so I think my morning routine on Mondays is gonna be 1) Take the kid to school, 2) play in the Palace/Chips casino $20 8:30 a.m. tournament, 3) Profit! It worked this morning -- my fifth place finish netted me $28 (net +$8). I called an all-in with QJo with only two orbits worth of chips left, and ran into AJs, which hit an ace on the flop. There was talk about splitting the pot five ways before then (which I was in favor of), which would have been about $100 apiece.

The $45 hand

I'd been playing for about 90 minutes at a $1/$2 table on PokerStars, and was down about $25. I'm one off the button, and I'm dealt K&diams Q♥. I chose the table because it's super tight, and sure enough, it's folded around to me. I raise to $2, and OhBoyGolf, who is on the button and who hasn't let me steal a blind all day, calls me. Small blind folds, big blind calls, and three of us see the flop:

K♥ T♠ 5♥

I've got top pair with a great kicker, and when the big blind checks, I know that if I bet, OhBoyGolf is going to call me with anything -- he may even raise me back, thinking that I'm trying to steal the pot for the fifth time this afternoon. I do, he does, the blind folds, and I re-raise him, as if to say "hey, I've really got it this time." He doesn't buy it, and caps it at $4.00. I call. At this point, I think he's got a king with a weaker kicker, and I'm in great shape to take down the pot.

Two players, $14.50 in the pot and the turn is K♠. I've turned trips, and I'm thinking he's got trips as well, but with a lower kicker. I bet $2.00, and we go back and forth, capping it.

The river is 8♥. There's a flush possibility, but if he was going for the flush, he wouldn't have been raising. I bet, we cap the pot, and he turns over 5&diams 5♠, making a full house. He'd had me beat from the start. I lost $22 on that one hand, because I couldn't slow down and think about what he might be beating me with.

Sometimes, I'm quite the donkey.

I won another hand a few minutes later, only losing $40 for the session. I also hit the play requirements to collect my $37.50 bonus, so in the end, I was only down $2.50 for the day.

Shuffled thoughts

• I've been trying for a few months now to figure out why my online poker balance has been so stagnant. PokerTracker shows that I'm winning about 52% of my sessions, and my current balance is just about down to where it was on November 1 -- after peaking $150 higher around Thanksgiving, it's been a slow erratic ride back down. I think I've been underestimating the skill level of the online player. I play the same quality starting hands, but in situations where I'm faced with the decision of "should I fold, or is he overplaying the second best hand?", I've been calling -- and losing. I need to respect more of my opponents' bets.
• Therefore, in complete contradiction of some of the best advice I've heard and read, I moved up to the $1/$2 games today, which really forces me to respect their bets. (The general advice is not to move up a level until you're consistently beating the lower level game.) I ended up +$17.
• Check out this $34 pot at the $1/$2 table. If I'd have had a deuce, I think I'd have been the victim of a virtual lynching.
• Next I went to Happy Days to play in the $3/$6 ring game. Live poker is much better -- you can much more easily tell who's just throwing money in the pot, and who's representing strength. The last time I played a ring game here, a couple years ago, I think, I burned through $100 lickety split. Tonight, I played for about two hours, ending up +$36, plus a free orange juice :-) Not bad considering my best hand was hitting an ace on the flop with AJs. My highest pair was 77, and my biggest pot came when I represented a paired ace when I only held a paired ten.
• Sigh. Happy Days' tournament schedule has been adjusted again. Sunday through Wednesday, they've got a midnight tournament. Thursday, it's a 10:00 ... something. The signs are inconsistent; it's either a $20+$5 industry tournament, or a $5 buy-in $5 bounty tournament with a single $20 rebuy. And they've got the $20+$5 seven days a week at noon and 7:00 p.m.
• Their bad beat jackpot (AAAKK or better beaten by quads or better) was at $100,513 tonight. It wasn't hit, but some guy the next table over hit a royal flush on the turn for a $3020 jackpot. I think he kissed the (male) dealer.
• Their rake is insane. For any pot other than a small one, it's a $3 rake plus $2 for the jackpot.
• They're also running out of white chips. The poker room manager had to buy a rack off of a guy at my table, and told us that an order for 2500 new white chips was in production, but hadn't arrived yet.
• Seattle Poker Forum has information about local casinos. Some of it's even accurate.

A sensible poker law

Following is a copy of an e-mail I sent to Rep. Steve Conway (R-Mercer Island), and cc:ed to my local state senator and representative. (Hyperlink added)

Subject: In Support of HB 1243: Please schedule a hearing
From: [me]
Date: Thu, January 25, 2007 10:11 am
To: Conway.steve@leg.wa.gov
Cc: carrell.michael@leg.wa.gov, kelley.troy@leg.wa.gov, green.tami@leg.wa.gov
Priority: Normal

Mr. Conway:

I am writing in support of House Bill 1243, "Providing an affirmative defense to unlawful internet gambling if the defendant committed the offense in his or her primary residence." Please schedule a hearing for this bill.

I am a lifelong resident of Lakewood, and believe it is incongruent of the state of Washington to have made online poker a class C felony, while still permitting home poker games, licensing local casinos, and advocating the state's sale of lottery tickets.

Sincerely,

[signature and contact information]

cc: 28th District legislators Mike Carrell, Tami Green, and Troy Kelley

Props to the Poker Players Alliance for the heads up on the existence of this bill.

The sky, it's a falling

From Neteller.com:

Effective Immediately

Due to recent US legislative changes and events, effective immediately, US members are no longer able to transfer funds to or from any online gambling sites.

All US members will continue to be able to use their NETELLER e-wallet account to safely transfer funds to and from non-gambling merchants and are not required to close their account or withdraw their funds.

I received several e-mails from many of the online casinos I played at last summer, plus e-mail from FullTilt[1] and PokerStars. In short, without sending a check or money order, it's going to be difficult to get money into our out of online gambling sites.

Wil Wheaton comments at thusly at CardSquad: this is the beginning of the end:

See, I really like poker, but I'm not rich, and while I'm entirely comfortable risking the price of a night out for dinner and a movie to play cards and maybe even leave with more than I started, I don't see myself driving to Commerce or the Bike, or making a special trip to Vegas to play in a B&M room for higher stakes, with the associated costs of travel and the extra investment of my time.

There are a lot of reasons to loathe my idiot government now, and this is right up there in my top five: they're telling me what I can do in my own home, and they're negatively impacting my ability to support myself and my family . . . and for what, exactly? So Bill Frist can pander to a minority of ultra-conservative whackos, and then not even follow through on his presidential bid?

This sucks. It makes me angry, and it makes me depressed.

Wil refers to Bill Rini's article, in which Bill accurately points out that the sky is indeed falling:

The problem is, IMHO, people like Amy who tell people that the sky isn’t falling. It gives credit to those saying this is some sort of isolated incident. Just like Firepay[2] was an isolated incident, Party[3] leaving the US was an isolated incident, Paradise[4] leaving the US was an isolated incident, yadda, yadda, yadda. People need to wake up and realize the US government has come to the playing field with their A-Game. We’re bumbling around arguing about whether there’s even a game today or not. The sky IS falling! How can you watch these multi-billion dollar a year companies bolting out of the US faster than you move your hand off a hot stove and think this is something that’s going to easily pass?

If you have even one iota of knowledge about how money moves around in this business the goals of the UIGEA[5] should have sent cold shivers down your spine. The guys who wrote the bill either by design or by complete fluke figured out how to best kill an online poker company; starve it to death.

What's going to happen? Well, for me, I've got about $150 sitting in PokerStars, and a few bucks either at FullTilt or BoDog. Those few bucks will need to grow to at least $50 to make a permissible withdrawl. The $150 will have to be the basis for my entire future play, which will need to be pretty much exclusively at PokerStars, unless I want to go through the multi-week process of getting a withdrawl, cashing the check, and writing a new check to another source. (Western Union fees make using them prohibitive.)

Assuming everyone's in a similar spot, the way I see it playing out is like this: very few new players will be sending checks to put money into their accounts. It's too time consuming, and most casual players probably made their first deposit on a whim. This means that, for the most part, the only money in play will be money that people had in their accounts on January 18.

Generally, the weakest players will lose their bankrolls first. Few new players will sign up to take their spots. PokerStars, who has had 40,000-80,000 players at a time each evening, will see these numbers drop as the better players take the money from the fish. As the numbers drop, the caliber of the average player increases. The medium sized fish, who have eaten all the small fish, become the small fish. I'm guessing that I'm one of these medium sized fish.

A smart fish (I'm an example of this, I hope) will play until they're in the lower half of the skill level of the remaining players. The smart thing to do is to play until this point, then withdraw all funds. The tough part is determining what this point is. Maybe I'm already there. At that point, the pool of players gets smaller and smaller, until it's a small handful of very good US players, and middle-to-good players from outside the US.

At least I can drive a mile and visit a local B&M casino. This has to really suck for people who live in places like Dallas or Salt Lake City, where the nearest card room is several hours away (or available in the warehouse district only if you use the secret knock and password).

-----

[1] From an e-mail from FullTilt: "As you may be aware, NETeller has announced that it will no longer accept transfer requests from U.S. customers to online poker sites or allow withdrawals from online poker sites to your NETeller account, effective immediately."

[2] Firepay was an online payment processor, like Neteller and PayPal. PayPal pulled out of the online gambling market a couple years ago, when they were getting dinged with too many chargebacks.

[3], [4] PartyPoker and Paradise pulled out in October, with a slew of other sites.

[5] The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act. This is the party of smaller government?

You know it's going to be good

These are the kind of receipts parents fear to find. Good thing it was me making the purchase.

(Yes, we already had enough baking soda already.)

Tacoma's monopoly

Spotted at Exit 133 this morning: City buys The News Tribune

Other critics of the purchased have pointed out the City’s monopoly is actually far wider than just the media. The ACLU, which is representing Cosgrove against the City, said, “Let’s look at the facts. Besides Click! and the Tribune, the City owns the Water Works and the Electric Company, plus one of the four railroads. They also have the biggest monopoly in town: Park Place (both North and South garages) and they’ve begun building a hotel on Boardwalk (which they’ve tried to rename as ‘The Esplanade.’)”

Later in the article, they mention Tacoma's short line railroad, and that free parking is available on downtown streets.

Kansas City (lowball), here I come

I don't know how long PokerStars has offered it, but I started playing 2-7 Triple Draw earlier this week (which the cool geezers call Kansas City lowball). It's a nice change, similar to Razz, and there's an amazing lack of strategy written on how to play it.

Two months ago, PokerNews wrote a decent article on the strategy. Michael Weisenberg also wrote a pretty good article for Card Player last year. But the undisputed bible of the game is Daniel Negreanu's chapter in Super/System 2.

I played the game with play money for a while, learning the rules as I went (five card draw, three drawing rounds, worst poker hand wins, straights and flushes count against you, so the best hand is 75432). I liked it, so I searched and found the two online articles I mentioned above. I played it some more and started stomping the play money tables.

I'm too much of a cheapass to actually go buy a poker book (the only ones I own are copies of magazines I bought at the airport), so I went to Barnes & Noble, sat down with Super/System 2, and made notes in my Blackberry. As my contribution to the body of knowledge online, here's my notes:

If you don't have a 2 in your hand, fold, unless you're defending the big blind or stealing from the button. Even then, you're probably not playing too wrong to fold it.

With these starting hands, do the following:

234	Raise or Reraise
235	Raise or Reraise
236	Playable, fold if lots of action
237	Raise or Reraise
238	Fold in early pos, raise in late
23xxx	Only to steal
245	Raise or Reraise
246	Playable, fold if lots of action
247	Raise or Reraise
248	Fold in early pos, raise in late
24xxx	Only to steal
256	Playable, fold if lots of action
257	Raise or Reraise
258	Fold in early pos, raise in late
25xxx	Only to steal
267	Playable, fold if lots of action
26xxx	Fold - the straight possibilities will kill you
27xxx	Only to steal
347	Only to steal or def. blinds
348	Only to steal or def. blinds
357	Only to steal or def. blinds
358	Only to steal or def. blinds
367	Only to steal or def. blinds
457	Only to steal or def. blinds

If you find yourself thinking "This 9-high hand is probably good," it probably isn't.

If you are holding onto an 8 and betting to draw two cards, fold instead.

If you are holding onto an 8, betting to draw one card, and are afraid you'll hit a straight, fold instead.

That's abuot it. Using this strategy at three (non simultaneous) 50¢/$1 tables this morning, I ended up +$9.10, -$20.00, and +$9.35. The -$20 was me playing too many eights and nines. A bit more practice, and I'm gonna do well at this game.

Another Stud Hi/Lo hand: how lo can you go?

This hand features many of the same characters, as it took place only about five minutes after the hand I posted earlier this morning.

Eight of us post the nickel ante, and I'm dealt A♠ 2♣ 7♣. There's six stoppers showing -- one of the eight of us has a 9 for the highest card on the table. My 72A is usually pretty good, but there's going to be a lot of people drawing to the low, and a lot of low cards are already gone.

Toffee74 brings in for 25¢ with his 3♦, and he gets four callers. I raise to 50¢, and Cardrush (to my left) folds. Toffee74 re-raises to 75¢ (hey! don't scare away the fish!), and five of us call, including me.

It's all non-pairing high cards on fourth street, except damajha, who is showing a 65 (another blocker). It's checked to Toffee74, who bets 50¢. Everybody calls, and six players go to fifth street.

I get a 3♥, giving me J732A. There's a nice low on its way, folks. Only two players have lower possibles: damajaha showing 965, and Toffee74 showing 963. It's checked to me, I bet $1, and Toffee74 raises to $2. One more caller, damajaha and two others fold, and I call.

4♦. Monster. 7432A. It's checked to me, and Toffee74 and I cap it, trapping poor Galster64 in the middle, calling away.

The river gets me another ace, for [A♠ 2♣] 7♣ J♥ 3♥ 4♦ [A♦], my monster low and AAJ74 for a weak high.

Galster64 checks, I bet, Toffee74 raises, Galster folds, and we cap it off. He shows [7♦ 5♦] 3♦ 9♦ 6♠ J♦ [8♣] for a jack-high flush, but his low is only 87653, so we split the pot.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
toffee74: shows [7d 5d 3d 9d 6s Jd 8c] (HI: a flush, Jack high; LO: 8,7,6,5,3)
LauricT: shows [As 2c 7c Jh 3h 4d Ad] (HI: a pair of Aces; LO: 7,4,3,2,A)
toffee74 collected $17.45 from pot
LauricT collected $17.45 from pot

$34.90 in the pot in a 50¢/$1 game. Amazing.

Does the E in HORSE stand for +EV?

The beauty of low limit HORSE -- particularly in the Omaha and Stud Hi/Lo games, is that you'll get three or four players going to the river, and if you're going for the low, it's usually pretty easy to see that the other players are going for the high. Therefore, you jam the pot, because betting $4 to make the other two players put $8 in the pot is a very +EV maneuver. Two amazing hands from last night illustrate this well. One now, one in a future post.

It's Stud Hi/Lo, and all eight players post the 5¢ ante. I'm dealt (8♦ 5♥) A♠. My strategy for Stud Hi/Lo is to go for the low, with the idea that I might back into the high. I'll only go for the high if I get dealt a monster to start. 85A is a decent hand to go for the low, and as I look around the table, there's only three low-blockers visible (two sevens and a four). I keep track of the number of blockers on one hand; when it gets to six, it's time to start thinking about folding.

Seven players, including me, go to fourth street for the 25¢ bring-in minimum. I get 7♠, for an 875A low draw with three cards to come. With my ace showing, I'm the current high hand, so I lead with a 5o¢ bet. I get four callers, with only one other person possibly going for the low, toffee74 with 7♣ A♦.

Five of us go to fifth street, where I get 6♦. I've made a low, but not a very good one, 8765A. However, I now have a straight possiblity -- might I scoop this one? Toffee74 got a 2♠, giving him three to the nut low. Cardrush, who is sitting on my left got a second ten, giving him the current high hand of T♠ 9♣ T♣.

Cardrush checks, as does everyone else, so when it gets to me, I put in the $1 bet. Cardrush then checkraises me to $2, implying that he's got trip tens. With just five cards, I can't imagine he's got a boat yet. Toffee74 folds to the checkraise (this is huge!), kt10k (with 4♣ Q♠ K♦) calls the $2, ssvaw25 folds, and I reraise to $3. Only two more blockers have come out, so I've got 7 outs to significantly improve my low, plus two more nines to make a straight (the two fours remaining for the straight are also part of the seven low cards). Nine outs with two cards to come almost demands that I raise here, and doing so will tell me the strength of Cardrush's and kt10k's hands. More importantly, though, I've got a made low, and I'm facing TT9 and KQ4. I'm pretty much a lock for half the pot. With two other players still in, building the pot is almost mandatory here.

Cardrush and kt10k both call (a sign that they fear each other's high hand), and on sixth street I get 7♥; the low Hellmuthian pair is not much use to me. Cardrush gets a worthless looking 5♦; kt10k gets A♥, giving him a possible broadway straight, but with two of the tens in Cardrush's hand, I don't think that's a strong possibility, particularly after they both check to me. I bet $1 to build the pot, and they obligingly call.

On the river, I get 6♠, for a high hand of 7766A, and a low of 8765A. They both check to me, I bet $1 to build the pot, and they call again.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
LauricT: shows [8d 5h As 7s 6d 7h 6s] (HI: two pair, Sevens and Sixes; LO: 8,7,6,5,A)
cardrush: mucks hand
kt10k: mucks hand
LauricT collected $9.60 from pot
LauricT collected $9.55 from pot
kt10k leaves the table
LauricT said, "wow"

The hand history shows that Cardrush mucked [2♣ J♠] T♠ 9♣ T♣ 5♦ [8♠]. what was he even doing getting in the hand with JT2? And checkraising with TTJ92 with only two cards to come?

kt10k mucked [Q♥ 3♣] 4♣ Q♠ K♦ A♥ [8♣]. He never raised during the hand, just calling every bet. Q43 is not a good starting hand, although when he hit a pair of queens on fourth street, he might have thought he was good to improve. Two aces, a king, and another queen were already out, though, so he couldn't have felt too good. After that, he was just wedded to high looking cards.

It was Toffee74's fold on fifth street that told me I had the green light to jam the pot with my made low. Every bet beyond that point was going to pay off 1:1, with a 100% +EV. Backing into the high was the icing on the cake.

HORSE: a $46.40 pot in Stud Hi/Lo

I've been doing surprisingly well the last couple of days at PokerStars HORSE tables, both tournaments and ring games. Pretty simple, really: follow my list of starting hands in Omaha, start with three unpaired cards <= 8 in Razz or Stud Hi/Lo, and start with JJx or better in Stud.

And then this game happened tonight (edited out irrelevant stuff):

PokerStars Game: HORSE (7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit, $0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/07 - 04:09:37 (ET)
Seat 1: Sofa_KingLky ($19.10 in chips)
Seat 2: GigaDeck ($11.80 in chips)
Seat 3: QuinnDnvr ($18.70 in chips)
Seat 4: dlazmdm ($28.85 in chips)
Seat 5: LauricT ($23 in chips)
Seat 6: aislepoker ($21.65 in chips)
Seat 7: ~Angel Kiss~ ($26.65 in chips)
Seat 8: wizball ($12.15 in chips)
[All players post $0.05 ante]
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to GigaDeck [2d]
Dealt to QuinnDnvr [Js]
Dealt to LauricT [6h Ac 5d]
Dealt to aislepoker [Kd]
Dealt to wizball [7h]
GigaDeck: brings-in low $0.25
QuinnDnvr: calls $0.25
dlazmdm: folds
LauricT: raises $0.25 to $0.50 (I've got a good start on the low)
aislepoker: calls $0.50
~Angel Kiss~: folds
wizball: calls $0.50
Sofa_KingLky: folds
GigaDeck: calls $0.25
QuinnDnvr: calls $0.25
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to GigaDeck [2d] [7c]
Dealt to QuinnDnvr [Js] [Jc]
Dealt to LauricT [6h Ac 5d] [Ad] (QuinnDnvr looks to be the one I'll showdown against. And my buried aces beat his jacks. He called before my raise, so I don't think he's got a J down)
Dealt to aislepoker [Kd] [Qs]
Dealt to wizball [7h] [8c]
QuinnDnvr: checks
LauricT: bets $0.50
aislepoker: calls $0.50
wizball: calls $0.50
GigaDeck: calls $0.50
QuinnDnvr: raises $0.50 to $1 (I think he's looking for information here)
LauricT: raises $0.50 to $1.50 (So here's your information. I've got you beat.)
aislepoker: calls $1
wizball: calls $1
GigaDeck: calls $1
QuinnDnvr: calls $0.50
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to GigaDeck [2d 7c] [Kc]
Dealt to QuinnDnvr [Js Jc] [Jh] (!!!)
Dealt to LauricT [6h Ac 5d Ad] [Ah] (See? Beat.)
Dealt to aislepoker [Kd Qs] [9c]
Dealt to wizball [7h 8c] [5s]
QuinnDnvr: bets $1
LauricT: raises $1 to $2 (What I'm trying to say: Hey buddy, here's what I think of your three hooks! What I'm really thinking: Crap -- hope he doesn't have a concealed pair for a boat)
aislepoker: folds
wizball: raises $1 to $3 (Where'd he come from? Looks like he's pushing for the low; he can have it now.)
GigaDeck: calls $3
QuinnDnvr: raises $1 to $4 (I've got AA showing, and he raises with JJJ. His boat has me worried.)
Betting is capped
LauricT: calls $2
wizball: calls $1
GigaDeck: calls $1
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to GigaDeck [2d 7c Kc] [4s]
Dealt to QuinnDnvr [Js Jc Jh] [9s]
Dealt to LauricT [6h Ac 5d Ad Ah] [3s] (Nice. I still have a draw for the low.)
Dealt to wizball [7h 8c 5s] [6d]
QuinnDnvr: bets $1
LauricT: calls $1
wizball: raises $1 to $2 (Showing possible straight.)
GigaDeck: calls $2
QuinnDnvr: calls $1 (We fear the straight.)
LauricT: calls $1 (Yes, we do.)
*** RIVER ***
Dealt to LauricT [6h Ac 5d Ad Ah 3s] [3c] (Boat!)
QuinnDnvr: bets $1
LauricT: raises $1 to $2 (I no longer fear the straight, nor QuinnDnvr's concealed pair. Only if QuinnDnvr has Jd hidden would his quads beat me.)
wizball: raises $1 to $3
GigaDeck: folds (Thanks for your money. Try the veal.)
QuinnDnvr: calls $2 (A good sign)
LauricT: raises $1 to $4 (Feed me.)
Betting is capped
wizball: calls $1
QuinnDnvr: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
LauricT: shows [6h Ac 5d Ad Ah 3s 3c] (HI: a full house, Aces full of Threes)
wizball: shows [2c 6c 7h 8c 5s 6d 4c] (HI: a straight, Four to Eight; LO: 7,6,5,4,2)
QuinnDnvr: mucks hand [6s 7s Js Jc Jh 9s 2s] F(a flush, Jack high)
LauricT collected $22.95 from pot
wizball collected $22.95 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $46.40 | Rake $0.50
Seat 1: Sofa_KingLky folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: GigaDeck folded on the River
Seat 3: QuinnDnvr mucked [6s 7s Js Jc Jh 9s 2s]
Seat 4: dlazmdm folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 5: LauricT showed [6h Ac 5d Ad Ah 3s 3c] and won ($22.95) with HI: a full house, Aces full of Threes
Seat 6: aislepoker folded on the 5th Street
Seat 7: ~Angel Kiss~ folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 8: wizball showed [2c 6c 7h 8c 5s 6d 4c] and won ($22.95) with HI: a straight, Four to Eight; LO: 7,6,5,4,2

Sucks to be QuinnDnvr.

Key to winning at Happy Days: stay out of hands

Played the midnight tournament at Happy Days Casino last night ($25 entry fee), won both match plays (+$40), some additional blackjack (+$5), placed fifth (+$52), ending up net +$72. One very loud guy at the table -- from his loud, social demeanor; his shiny silk tie; his short buzzcut hair; and his discussion of 2006 model year car deals, I think he was a car salesman -- really made me focus on my play, and the table image I was projecting.

Early in the game, I'm dealt AA in middle position. Starting stacks are 5000, and everyone's still close to that. UTG raises to 600, and I re-raise to 1500. The cutoff calls, the original raiser calls, and everyone else folds. The flop comes pretty raggy, so I'm sure my aces are good. UTG checks, I put in another 1500, the button thinks for a minute, and calls. UTG folds, and the turn is a Q. I push all in. The button folds, and I muck my cards.

The car salesman (in seat 8) says something to the effect of "Nicely played. I can tell you didn't have anything. Why didn't you show?" I'm in seat 3, and I glance around the table. "Nobody paid to see it," I say. He's not sure what to make of that comment.

Twice over the next 30 minutes, I'm in the pot with the best hand, and get outdrawn. (The guy to my left gets pocket kings four times over the course of the night, getting beat all four times, including once at the final table to go out in 8th place.) Each time was an all-in (against smaller stacks), so my quality cards are shown. Car salesman points out my quality hands to the table: "You're playing exactly right, but you're not winning the hands," he says. "Guess you can throw your well thought-out poker theories right out the window. What 'cha gonna do?"

"Deuce seven, all the way to the river," I answer. The table's amused.

About 20 minutes later, with 23 players left, I get moved to another table. One hand later, I'm moved back to my original table, but now in seat 6, one away from the car salesman. The blinds are moving up, and because of the table image I have set for myself, I'm able to steal car salesman's blinds twice with marginal hands. He'll call almost anyone else at the table, but not me.

I've got a relatively small stack, but I know the other looser players will quickly start knocking each other out now, so I muck pocket threes, KJo, and pocket sixes when faced with a raiser ahead of me. These hands might have won, but at this point, it's just about survival.

My stack is pathetically small -- 11000 -- but I make it to the final table, with blinds at 4000/8000. The ten of us make the "Happy Days Special" deal: 6th-10th get $25; 10% of the pool is a dealer tip. I'm at least going to get my buyin back. Lucky for me, I draw the button, which gives me one orbit to get a good hand. The best I get is Q9s, with five hands to go before the blind, and I fold it. Nothing else comes. With 8 players left, I post my 8000 blind.

Everyone folds, including the small blind. "Looks like I get to live to see another day." I say. Now with 15000, I post the small blind, and fold it in the face of an all-in when I get a garbage hand.

With 11000 left, I get another two bad hands, then the blinds go up to 5000/10000, and we color up. The 11000 becomes 15000, meaning I'll get to the small blind if I have to. No good hands come, but three more players drop out -- two of them in a monster three-way all-in fest. I'm in the positive money. In the big blind, I push all in pre-flop with KJo. It's folded to the small blind (a big stack), who calls me with T7o. A ten hits the flop, nothing helps me, IGHN.

If I'd played those low pocket pairs close to bubbleville, or if I'd have run with the Q9s, I don't think I'd have made it as far. It seems like folding anything less than a premium hand is the key to placing in the money at Happy Days.

The key to placing in the big money, on the other hand, is to call smaller stacks all-ins with losing hands (K9o against AT), then get lucky when a four-on-the-board flush hits you. This happened more times than I can count last night. Too risky for me to play that way.

(Also, I ran into a former scout from when I was scoutmaster -- Kaspar was in the tournament, too, and although he looked forward to knocking me out, we never made it to the same table.)

It's just $5

Bodog offers a $4 + $0.40 tournament, 10 players, top five positions pay $4-$6-$8-$10-$12. Yes, half the field gets paid. I'm pretty sure if you sign up and fold every hand, you'll end up ahead enough to make it profitable.

Yesterday, I got knocked out of three of these in a row, out of the money, losing all three going with the best hand. JJ lost to A9 on a 9-high flop when the river brought another 9. AK lost to AQ preflop when a Q hit. And AJ lost to QT on a board of AJK-J-x. At the 5¢/10¢ limit tables, I got schooled for another 80¢ losing to hands like a calling station's pocket threes when they rivered a set.

Fine. I can play that game. I mentally wrote off another $5, and decided I'd sign up to a 5¢/10¢ limit tables and see the flop at any price, then fold if I didn't hit the flop hard.

I dropped down to about $3.80, then brought down a monster pot when my 52s (calling a capped pre-flop pot) rivered a flush against pocket aces and TPTK. Take that!

Geocaching again, briefly

Caches are a lot easier to find when you've already been there three times. More at Kelly's blog.

Catching up

It's been a couple of weeks since my last post, mainly, I guess, because my poker confidence has been pretty low, and I haven't had much to crow about. Back in late October, when I moved from PartyPoker to PokerStars, the word online was that the fishiest players from Party were moving to PokerStars and FullTilt. I signed up at PokerStars to catch the fish (or maybe I was one of the school of fish leaving Party?), and did well for a few weeks. Then FullTilt offered a 100% matching bonus, so I moved my funds there in early November, continuing to win until about Thanksgiving. But since then, it's been a downward trend.

Maybe all the fish got fished out. The percentage of players seeing the flop in the 50¢/$1 games was almost always around 30-33%, sometimes as low as 25-27%. As a point of reference, a table with 35-40% begins to get juicy enough that its waiting list will begin to grow rapidly. However, unlike the other poker rooms, FullTilt only has 9 players per table instead of 10, which means these numbers are an even greater indication of the tightness of the tables.

Should I have played looser, knowing that the tables were so tight? Maybe, but that's not my style, and not something I've had a lot of practice at.

On Boxing Day, after losing another $12 at FullTilt, I pulled my money out, and went in search of easier pickings. In the end, even though FullTilt had paid me $45 in bonuses, I ended up down about $21 from my initial FullTilt buyin.

I'd dug through PokerTracker's hand history, found mistakes (overplaying overcards), and worked to fix them. I'd re-tightened my starting hand requirements. No luck. I was being beat like a wet noodle. (That's not a good thing, if you're the noodle.)

I dug through my quasi-spam emailbox at Yahoo, looking for any poker offers from casinos I hadn't tried yet, and found an offer for $20 free from Bodog Casino. Casino games only, and $500 playthru restriction.

Sure. Why not.

I turned the $20 into a real $16, withdrew it, and sat down at the cheap no-limit poker tables at Bodog... and lost a quarter of it the first day, trying to push pocket 8s through a flop with a K showing. Not smart.

So last night, feeling that I needed to get some real perspective on my game, I went to Happy Days to play in their midnight tournament.* (Well, first I went to Palace with a match play coupon I found in the News Tribune a few weeks ago. It was kind of strange to walk up to the cage, exchange the coupon for a match play ticket, bet $10 on the blackjack table, hit a 20 against the dealers 17, then walk back to the cage and cash out for $30. A quick three minutes work.)

(Oh, and I hit blackjack on my first two hands at Happy Days, too, on match play; nice start to a good evening. Remind me to write up something about tonight, the night I took insurance by mistake.)

When the tournament started, the alternate list was 16 players deep. I played good, tight, aggressive poker, helped by the fact that the two players to my left would telegraph when they planned to fold, and made it as deep as 12th place. Maybe I shouldn't have pushed all in with AQs and 77 on consecutive hands (lost both), but if either of those would have hit, I'd have been in a great spot to go deep into the money instead of just getting my buyin back.

I felt like I was playing some of the best poker I've played in a long time, in spite of getting few good hands. KJo in early position, close to the bubble but with a good sized stack? Folded it. No sense in taking a risk there... but I think I would have pushed with it online.

Maybe that's the difference. I need to push myself to realize that the online chips are just as real as the clay chips in the casino. Perhaps I've forgotten that.

At lunch today, I played a $4+$0.40 tourney at Bodog. Finished in first place. Is my funk cured? Or will I go back to chasing with suited face overcards?

* As of December 1, Happy Days has midnight tournaments on M-T-W-Th only, but noon and 7 pm tournaments every day.

Edit: Added graph

Back to basics: Learn your starting hands

As I mentioned a few days ago, it's been a crappy month of online poker, down about $100 from my November high point. PokerTracker helped me realize that I was overplaying overcards, and I spent most of lunch Thursday re-reading Miller/Sklansky/Malmuth's "playing overcards" section in Small Stakes Hold 'Em. I also read some of my older posts, and realized that I've really loosened my starting hand requirements too much.

I used to have a cheat-sheet on my desk that I'd refer to as a reminder of what hands to call with, which to raise with, and which to re-raise with, from early, middle, late, and blind positions. I don't know what happened to it, and I'd forgotten I used to have it, until I created a new one (again, based on Small Stakes), and used it on Friday.

It felt good; I wasn't waiting on flops and crossing my fingers for a check-around any more. I ended up +$9.55, but more significantly, I played three simultaneous tables, and ended up ahead at all of them.

Has my flat/downward trend started to improve? Maybe. Time will tell.

Best night in a month, and that's not saying a lot

Last night, I ended up +$11.60. Sad to say, that's the best poker result I've achieved since November 16, when I was up $23. I've had nine losing days (including a frighteningly bad -$52.95 when I tried to play at the $1/$2 table) and five winning days (the best a +$9.75 in spite of losing a $7.75 in tournament play). The $30 in bonuses collected from Full Tilt offset it a bit, but I'm down about $70 from my high point just before Thanksgiving.

I attribute this tough streak to three things: 1) The level of play has gotten tougher. I don't know what to attribute this to, but play has gotten really, really tight. My "voluntarily put money in pot %" stat was at a respectable 23-25%. Experts say that it should be at about that level; higher than that, you're playing too many hands; less than that, you're playing too tight and leaving money on the table.

At PartyPoker, at PokerStars, and (after Party shut down in October) at Full Tilt, at a 9 or 10 person table, I was usually the second or third tightest; seven people played looser, and I could usually end up with some of their money. In the last month at Full Tilt, my stat has been the same, but I've generally been one of the three loosest people at the table. The opposition has tightened up. 2) I failed to adjust to the tighter play, and plays that would have won money in the past -- strong bluffs -- either won a minimum, or lost big. Holding AQ on a flop of 479, I could ram and jam, and would win a big pot against someone wishing with another couple overcards when they folded on the river. Now, I either don't get past the flop, or lose to someone who stayed in with a flopped set.

3) Related to #2, I failed to respect strong betting. Before, there was always one or more players who seemed to raise preflop with any single face card. Someone was always drawing to the flush, and it made sense to make them pay. With the stronger players, you can't profit from these mistakes as often.

I took a full evening this weekend and instead of playing, I used PokerTracker to analyze my stats over the last three weeks. Mistakes I saw in my own game, which I made repeatedly or which cost me a good sized chunk of change:

1) Holding two overcards (e.g., KJ) and a flop comes paired (e.g., 3-5-5), I bet to try and win, and it's raised. Instead of respecting the raise and folding, I doubt the other player's skill, and re-raise. Lost a lot of money doing that.

2) When I'm holding top-pair-top-kicker, and I'm check raised, I should fold more often. There were at least a dozen times I ran into someone who'd flopped a set, and I just bolted blindly along through the river.

3) When I hit trips, and the board has two suited cards (e.g., I have J♥ J♦, and the board is J♣ 3♣ 7♠), don't slowplay. Someone who is staying in is trying to hit their flush card, and will do so to beat you 40% of the time. Don't give them a free chance to do it.

Yes. PokerTracker is worth picking up.

Satiating the Mouse: Day 5, The final day: divorces, toads, and sake

As day 4 drew to a close, we had a late night snack in the hotel's Pop Century cafeteria, then brought it over to the bar, sitting down next to a couple who were alternatively watching Monday Night Football and loudly discussing the future of their relationship, which didn't seem to be going very well.

"This is how Monday Night Football should be watched," said Kevin, referring to the game ending at about midnight instead of 9:00 as it does on the west coast. He nursed his beer, while I checked the fantasy football scores on my Blackberry. To our left, the couple was arguing over how much effort each of them had put into their relationship. Married? I don't know, but I assume so.

Kim and Krys joined us (unlike Washington's archaic laws, kids can sit in the bar, but obviously can't order alcohol). And we watched the game, discussed the next 24 hours, and ate. The couple continued shouting (not too loudly), we watched the middle of the fourth quarter, and Kim, Krys, and I headed back to the hotel room.

Kevin showed up about half an hour later. For want of a clarifying verb, the couple's marriage was coming to an end. Apparently, the husband said, "I'm more interested in the game than you" to the wife. Kevin understood what he meant: "I'm more interested in the game than you are", but that's not the way she took it. Eep.

The previous day, I'd made day 5 reservations for breakfast at the Crystal Palace at the Magic Kingdom. We seem to always have a breakfast with Pooh and Piglet at Disneyland, and this trip would be no different. Bland, buffet, breakfast food -- as expected -- and I tried grits for the first time in my life. Bleaugh. After breakfast, we wandered into Tomorrowland, and Kevin accurately pointed out that at 9:00 on a November Tuesday morning, the Tomorrowland Plaza looked as empty as Seattle Center does on a typical day. We rode Stitch, and Space Mountain, then tried to track down the entrance to the Tomorrowland Transit Authority (we finally had to ask). Krys got into a conversation with the remote-control robotic garbage can that I had talked to on Day 2 (it had told me that my Trogdor shirt was cool, but Homestar Runner was cooler), and it sang her a birthday song and asked her for a hug -- then taunted her for hugging a trash can.

We rode Haunted Mansion, and Krys had on the way out, we stopped to take a close look at the pet cemetery that we couldn't see in the dark of our previous visit. Way in the back left corner was a statue of Mr. Toad. Apparently, when the new Winnie the Pooh ride was installed, kicking out Mr. Toad's Wild Ride, Disney decided to memorialize the old ride here. Pretty cool.

At lunch time, we headed over to Epcot by taking the ferry from the Magic Kindom to the transportation hub, then a monorail the rest of the way. Having ridden Washington State ferries several times, the ride was nothing special, except that the lake had no tide to worry about. On the other end, as we departed, the skipper pulled Krys aside, and required the hordes of people waiting to board to sing her "Happy Birthday" before he would allow them to board. Pretty special.

We briefly wandered over to the beach at The Polynesian resort, and poked at the white sand, then waited for the monorail. I'd heard a rumor, and confirmed it. By asking, we were able to sit in the front car of the monorail, with the driver, and see out forwards, instead of just out the sides. Pretty cool.

At Epcot, we got our Test Track fastpasses, then rode Mission Space again. It seemed much more intense, and we were much more goofy, now that I didn't have a liter of beer in my system. I was starting to get a headache, though.

We then wandered over to The Seas with Nemo et al., where we rode the recently opened Nemo ride. It was OK, nothing special, but kind of cool I guess. The ride projects the Finding Nemo characters into the Epcot aquarium, so it looks like they're interacting with the real fish. At the end, the shell-buggies opened, we stepped out, and Kim saw them:

"DOLPHEEEEEENS!!!" she squealed, bolting for the stairs to get a better look. I swear, if she was two years old, she'd have run out into traffic or needed a kid-leash or something. Krys tears off after her, and Kevin and I look at each other shaking our heads, no comprehension of how cool dolphins must be to females.

We wander around the aquarium, and queue up for Turtle Talk with Crush. I had low expectations of this, and was rally amazed at how interactive the computer animated show was. Crush takes questions from kids in the audience, says the kids names when he answers, comments on what they're wearing, and plays with the audience in a way that you know it's really interactive. Must be a camera, a booth with someone who's voice is a dead ringer for Crush, and some method of matching the mouth movements with the speech.

We then slowly made our way to Japan for dinner, stopping at Test Track (fun ride, but GM is really getting their money's worth with the marketing. Most rides at Disney World end in a gift shop; this one ends in a car showroom.

We shopped our way towards Japan, stopping in China for the Circlevision 360° show. Krys bought a Chinese parasol that she had her eye on earlier in the week, and we looked at the museum's show of several hundred ancient Chinese garden warrior spirits that had been unearthed in an archeological dig. Maybe I'll offend a good size chunk of the world's population here, but aren't these just old dirty garden gnomes?

We had dinner at Teppanyaki, a typical but nice Japanese steak house, very Benihana like. I was feeling sicker than I had all week, and merely picked at my food, but the rest of us really liked it. Krys had never been to a cook-in-front-of-you show place, other than Mongolian Grill, and was quite impressed. Kevin had warm sake, which he declared to be excellent. I tried it... feh.

Sick as a dog, I left the group early and headed back to the hotel. Rumor is that they shopped their way through the rest of the world. I packed for the next day's trip home -- I was taking an 8:00 a.m. flight out; the rest of them were leaving at 6:00 a.m., which means early to bed and gawdawful early to rise. They arrived as I was finishing packing, they packed, and we headed to bed. They awoke dark and early and headed out; I tried to go back to sleep for two hours, but was unsuccessful. An hour later, I got up, showered, and caught the bus to the airport.

At the airport, I was early enough, and security was fast enough, that I got to see the Kim, Kevin, and Krys off at the gate. That's unusual to be able to do these days. Their route took them home via Houston; mine was via Dallas. We both hit weather, and were delayed three hours in getting home. From Dallas, I arranged for the three of them to be met by a town car, which took them home (cheaper than a cab!). Otherwise, pretty uneventful trip back.

Good times.